It established an upper chamber called the Senate, composed of 300 seats. The economic files that the government faces and the citizens suffer from are many, varied and have repercussions during the new year, and analysts see them in an optimistic framework, while others refuted the risks that await them. In this, Al-Houfi mentioned Qatar Petroleum Company's announcement last November to operate a refinery project in Mostorod, north of Cairo. Official turnout was also much lower than the previous election, around 41%. Posted at 18:48 10 Dec 2020 18:48 10 Dec 2020 Italy accuses Egypt agents over student's murder Italian prosecutors accuse four Egyptian officers over the 2016 murder of a Cambridge student. World Bank, Latest available data. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. On the monetary side, Abdel-Muttalib suggested reducing the interest rate and stabilizing the pound exchange rate against the dollar, ruling that the price would decrease below 15 pounds against the dollar. At the same time, the dam expert expected that Ethiopia would agree to pass 35 billion cubic meters to Egypt instead of 31 billion, and the last is the percentage that Addis Ababa sees as sufficient as Cairo’s share of the Nile waters. Only Stratfor tells you what's going on, why it matters & what's happening next Take The Offer - Subscribe Today. The State has a presidential system of Government. For 2021, the priority is to support the economic recovery as the external environment remains fragile and risks include a second wave of COVID-19, less favorable financing conditions for emerging markets, and a drop in remittances (IMF). Source: In an interview with the French paper Le Figaro , Sisi responded to a question on a potential military faceoff between Egypt and Turkey in Libya, saying, “Egypt will never initiate an attack . In Egypt, the Coronavirus Poses a Political Threat The pandemic has exposed the shortfalls of a government that has neglected the health sector for too long. Leading political figures, including Zyad el-Elaimy, Hisham Fouad and Hossam Moanis, were arrested to stop them founding a coalition to contest the 2020 parliamentary elections.In September and October, police arrested several members from five political … Al-Koumi went on to talk about the repercussions of events in Libya, expecting that Turkey's intervention would change all the balance of the equation in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage. 2019 World Press Freedom Index, Reporters Without Borders, Political freedom in the world (interactive map), World Bank's Map of SME-Support Measures in Response to COVID-19, Ministry of International Trade and Industry. This expected step, despite the technical problems with the dam, was justified by Hafez by trying to ensure that the ruling coalition won the presidency of the current Ethiopian Prime Minister in the elections. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms. Inflation has been declining since end-2019 and has remained rather contained, registering an average of 5.7% in the fiscal year 2020 (from an average 19.6% in the previous three), reflecting subdued demand and the general decline of global commodity prices, including oil. Al-Koumi expected that the only change in the upcoming elections would be to transfer her administration from the National Security Agency to the intelligence services, adding that "nothing will change except for pumping new blood from the litmus in Parliament, especially with the emergence of the second chamber, which is the Senate.". And because the threads of those issues did not touch its end after the finish line, it seems that the year 2020 will be full of repercussions and consequences that will affect the political and economic scenes. © Export Entreprises SA, All Rights Reserved. It is largely dominated by revenues from telecommunications and tourism sectors. In June 2020, Egypt adopted an economic reform program supported by a 12-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the IMF. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores. The main challenger was arrested, prompting other challengers to withdraw their campaign on possible grounds of intimidation. Elections for both chambers were scheduled for 2020. The Renaissance Dam .. Agreement to continue the tripartite negotiations under the auspices of the African Union, The balance of power, militarily and economically, is ahead of Egypt, and Ethiopia is challenging. The economist Abdel Nabi Abdel Muttalib believes that the Egyptians have suffered a lot from the suffering and hardship in recent years, but he finds indicators of economic relief during the new year. For the information on the economic recovery scheme put in place by the local government to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Egyptian economy, please visit the dedicated page on KPMG’s website as well as the website of the Central Bank of Egypt (in Arabic). Egypt reopened its airspace to Qatari flights on Tuesday and will allow the resumption of air traffic between the two countries as part of a thaw in relations with the Gulf state, officials said. Source: Freedom in the World 2019, Freedom House. For the information on the economic recovery scheme put in place by the local government to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Egyptian economy, please visit the, For the information on the local business support scheme established by the Egyptian government, consult the, For the up-to-date information on possible support plans for exporters in Egypt, if applicable, please consult the website of the, OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report Coronavirus (Covid-19): Living with uncertainty, IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19, Economic freedom in the world (interactive map), 2019 Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation, The Economist - Business Environment Rankings 2014-2018, Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, Website containing official information from the government. Domestic demand and foreign inflows will be hit as the economy and external finances weaken in 2020/21, but growth will recover to about 5% thereafter. Economic Outline | The House of Representatives is composed of 596 members elected for a period of 5 years by universal suffrage. Therefore, Shaheen expected that the government will continue to close the door to many imported goods, in order to avoid entering into a new crisis due to the high value of the dollar against the pound. The Central Bank of Egypt slashed policy rates by a cumulative 350 basis-points since March 2020 to ease liquidity. Economic activity appears to have improved somewhat in recent months, following a 1.7% year-on-year contraction in Q2 (Q1: +5.0% yoy). Its overall score has increased by 1.5 points, primarily because of a higher property rights score. • The unemployment rate declined to a decade low of 7.5% in June 2019, compared to 11.1% in 2018, before slightly rising to 7.9% at 2019’s end. The Demographic Situation. Source: The latter is forecast to pick up to 5% in 2022, subject to the post-pandemic global economic recovery. It is at the top of the files that occupied Egyptians during the past year, and it is natural for this concern to continue to develop during 2020. Inflation rate should decrease to 5.9% in 2020 and increase to 8.2% in 2021, according to the latest World Economic Outlook of the IMF (April 2020). The current political system was established following the Egyptian Revolution of 2011 and the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak.In the current system, the President is elected for a six-year term, where they are able to appoint up to 5 percent of the parliament. As for the development projects promoted by the Authority, the economic analyst said that it is not linked to an actual need to have value and return, and set an example of the Suez Canal subvention project, which cost the government about eight billion dollars without increasing the revenues of the channel despite its opening five years ago. Latest Update: January 2021. Political Outline or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.). Introductory Offer - expires 11:59 pm 9/9/2020 Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the services surplus declined by 31.2% to USD 9.0 billion (from USD 13.0 billion), mainly as a result of the decrease in tourism revenues. Political parties faced arbitrary restrictions on their work, such as organizing public events, and increasing arrests of their members. Santander, Santander Trade and the Flame logo are registered trademarks. To find out about the latest public health situation in the Egypt and the current sanitary measures in vigour, please consult the dedicated page on the website of the US embassy in Egypt. Prosecutors reject Italy’s finding that Egyptian security officials were behind kidnap and torture Published: 30 Dec 2020 . The authorities continued to severely restrict human rights organizations’ and political parties’ freedom of association. For the up-to-date information on possible support plans for exporters in Egypt, if applicable, please consult the website of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry. Finally, the services sector represents 50.5% of the Egyptian GDP and employs nearly half of the population (49%). That seemingly optimistic vision of the future of the economy is reversed by Mustafa Shaheen, professor of economics at American University of Oakland, who found several indications of economic suffering that Egyptians will experience during the year 2020. restored some competition in the political arena, through introducting a new Constitution in 1971. Political freedom in the world (interactive map) Egypt’s economic freedom score is 54.0, making its economy the 142nd freest in the 2020 Index. The politics of Egypt are based on republicanism, with a semi-presidential system of government. He added that the government headquarters is expected to move to the new administrative capital during the new year, which may be an important factor in advancing development. 90 per cent of people unemployed are under the age of 30, and unemployment has reached an unprecedented new high of 31.3 per cent of the active youth population. The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. Egypt's non-oil industry remains rather limited. Agriculture contributes 11% of the GDP (World Bank, 2019) and employs 23% of the active population (World Bank, 2020). Nonetheless, it is estimated that three-quarters of all employees are paid as unofficial workers, and 32.5% of the population lives below the poverty line (state statistics agency CAPMAS). The progovernment coalition For the Love of Egypt, consisting of some 10 parties, won all 120 bloc-vote seats. In addition, before the pandemic, the country was already in a strong position as it had implemented an economic reform program comprising fiscal consolidation measures, the introduction of a floating exchange rate and large cuts in subsidies. The country also became the 13th gas producer in the world (Le360Afrique), its production increasing by 12.4% during financial year 2019-2020 (Africa Oil & Power). The resulting polarisation has encouraged mounting political violence from the Islamic State (ISIS) and other violent groups, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula where a low-level insurgency has raged. Despite this slowdown, Egypt was one of the few countries with positive growth rate in 2020. PMI data for September indicated the first overall increase in non-oil private sector activity in 14 months, driven by an uptick in consumer demand. November 3, 2020. Appropriate monetary policy allowed the inflation rate to further decrease in 2020, reaching 5.7%. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. In spite of economic diversification efforts, the country continues to depend on the Suez Canal for a large part of its foreign income. Egypt’s presidential elections of March 2018 posed little challenge to incumbent Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi being re-elected with 97% of votes, after all serious opposition contenders halted their campaign two months before the election. Egypt has been a republic since King Farouk was overthrown by the Free Officers Movement in 1952. According to Abd al-Muttalib, there are data and indicators issued by local and international sources, expecting that in 2020 there will be an increase in growth rates, and low inflation rates to the lowest level, and this is likely to lead to a reduction in interest rates, which will contribute to increasing investment and employment rates. Public debt-to-GDP ratio increased to 86.6% in 2020 (from 83.8%) and is expected to reach 90.6% in 2021 before declining again in 2022 (to 87.8%). Therefore, any incident related to the contents or services must be resolved between the user and Export Entreprises S.A.; with no involvement or responsibility from Banco Santander, S.A. or any of its subsidiaries. Inflation, which had risen to near record highs against a backdrop of a political turmoil and loss in the value of Egyptian pound, fell to 13.9% in 2019, from 20.9% the previous year. Does the IMF carry deceptive messages to the Egyptians? IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2020. The government is also targeting GDP growth at 2% for FY 2020/21. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. Zawya: website containing economic information on the Middle East. The legislative power is bicameral since the constitutional referendum of 2019 was approved by the House of Representatives in June 2020. The former military spokesman for the armed forces, Brigadier General Mohamed Samir, did not expect that when he was writing an article criticising the political situation in Egypt, his words would drag him into woes at a time when no one is allowed to express his opinion, criticise a situation, or even warn of the danger the country is facing. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). He expected the trade balance of fuel to continue to achieve a surplus due to an increase in exports of oil and its products, which could lead to a decrease in the trade balance deficit as a whole. Alibaba: Economic portal on the Middle East. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, Egypt announced record oil production levels, exceeding 650,000 barrels per day. With regard to the file of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2020, former parliamentarian Izz al-Din al-Koumi did not find a glimmer of hope in the expected electoral process in light of the political blockage. On the issue of reconciliation with Qatar, Ahmed Rami al-Hofy, a leader in the Freedom and Justice Party that is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, predicted a slow and gradual reconciliation between Doha and Riyadh only without the rest of the countries including Egypt. Likewise, Ethiopia’s acquisition of $ 9 billion from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund - alongside the UAE and Saudi Arabia - will be a major reason for Addis Ababa's announcement that construction of the second upper dam over the Renaissance Dam will begin. Your country was not recognised. The warm climate and the abundant Nile water allow for several annual harvests. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. Hafiz suggested that the government would deal if Ethiopia agreed to the 35 billion cubic meters and extend the storage period of the dam to seven years as it had achieved an important victory, and would try to persuade the citizens to stop farming for most of the local products and expand the water desalination projects. The future situation will get worse, as the dam expert expects that Egypt will not get 35 billion cubic meters, explaining that the formula for Nile water users has entered new partners and they are Arab Gulf countries who have invested huge funds in purchasing seven million acres located near the course of the Blue Nile. Currently, Egypt’s annual share of the Nile water is fifty billion cubic meters, which means an estimated deficit of 19 billion cubic meters. Find more information about your business sector on our service Market Reports. He explained that the central bank supported the appreciation of the pound against the dollar during the last months of the past year, adding that if this government-made rise continues, prices are likely to decrease, especially associated with imported goods. Report It to Us. They featured low turnout, intimidation, and abuse of state resources. It appears as the most resilient sector in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Republic based on the Constitution adopted by referendum in January 2014 (amended in 2019). By continuing your navigation on our website. Professor of Dams Engineering in Malaysia Mohamed Hafez says it is expected that the Renaissance Dam will be opened informally during the annual celebrations of the ninth anniversary of its founding in April. The sector has historically been important for Egypt, and it accounts for about 20% of total exports and foreign exchange earnings. For the up-to-date information on all the measures applicable to movement of goods during the period of sanitary emergency due to the COVID-19 outbreak (including eventual restrictions on imports and exports, if applicable), please consult the website of the Egyptian Customs Authority (in Arabic).For a general overview of trade restrictions due to COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the section dedicated to Egypt on the International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage. Political stability in Egypt is a function of a complex set of factors, not all of which are in the hands of the government or the opposition. In 2020, the Suez Canal Authority generated USD 5.61 billion revenues (Egypt Oil&Gas). Any Comment About This Content? published by the World Health Organisation. The main crops are cereals, cotton, sugar cane and beetroots. It started improving again during Q1 2020 and was recorded at 7.7%. Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. Parliamentary: 2020 Current Political Context Egypt’s presidential elections of March 2018 posed little challenge to incumbent Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi being re-elected with 97% of votes, after all serious opposition contenders halted their campaign two months before the election. Macroeconomic performance and outlook Economic growth in Egypt, estimated at 5.6% for 2019, is forecast to strengthen to 5.8% in 2020 and 6% in 2021, supported by broad-based economic reform programs since 2016. Heshmat expected to expose the aims of what he called the axis of evil in the Islamic world and to expose his affairs to the people. To find out about the latest status of the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and the most up-to-date statistics on the COVID-19 disease in Egypt, consult the daily statistics published by the WHO.For the international outlook you can consult the latest situation reports published by the World Health Organisation. Deserts occupy most of the country. In Egypt, there are 8 different active political alliances based on their religious and political orientation. Travel receipts fell by 54.9% between January and June 2020 (Central Bank of Egypt). To find out about the latest public health situation in the Egypt and the current sanitary measures in vigour, please consult the dedicated page on the website of the, For information on the travel restrictions undertaken by the Egyptian government, please refer to the website of the, For the up-to-date information on all the measures applicable to movement of goods during the period of sanitary emergency due to the COVID-19 outbreak (including eventual restrictions on imports and exports, if applicable), please consult the website of the. Egypt drops inquiry into murder of Italian student Giulio Regeni. IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, President: Abdel fattah El-Sisi (since June 2014 ; re-elected for a second term in March 2018), Prime Minister: Mostafa Madbouli (since June 2018). With automotive manufacturing, steel manufacturing, cotton cultivation, textile production and the construction industry, the secondary sector accounts for 35.6% of the GDP and employs 28% of the workforce. He expected that the new formation of the government would achieve the missing cooperation between its members, as this would be reflected in the increase in growth and development rates. Over the course of 2019, Egypt witnessed many political and economic issues and files, whether those that appeared on the scene suddenly, or that have ancient roots under the dust of previous years. All rights reserved. CAIRO — Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said Dec. 9 that his country is working toward a comprehensive political solution to the Libyan crisis. By Anonymous | April 30, 2020… See the country risk analysis provided by Coface. Egypt Economic Outlook. He expected Qatar to not retract its political position with Egypt, but with regard to the economic file between the two countries, it seems that it is beyond the regional problems. Political news headlines, in-depth politics coverage and political opinion, plus breaking news on Egypt, Africa, MENA region, and world affairs. Cairo - 18 December 2020: Egypt's House of Representatives refused in a statement, Friday the European Parliament’s resolution on the human rights situation in Egypt. Please check the spelling. Learn more about Market Analyses about Egypt on Globaltrade.net, the Directory for International Trade Service Providers. And Shaheen spoke of the absence of any indication of the improvement of the deficit of the state budget, which means the continuing deterioration of the economic situation. This program was designed to support the country in the context of the COVID-19 crisis. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi ordered parliament to freeze its activities on 1 October 2019 and placed the National Security Agency (NSA) in charge of creating lists of candidates as the General Intelligence Directorate (GID) had not satisfactorily selected candidates in the previous election. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. Economic policy will focus initially on mitigating the fallout of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, with fiscal consolidation delayed, but reforms will continue as part of an IMF programme. The amendments consolidate authoritarian rule, undermine the judiciary’s dwindling independence, and expand the military’s power to intervene in political life. Santander Trade offers a set-content, database and tools provided and managed by Export Entreprises S.A. Santander provides access to its client companies but is totally unrelated to the contents and services provided which are, fully, the responsibility of Export Entreprises S.A. In particular, demographic changes and economic trends continue to evolve in ways that have the potential to increase unrest. The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. The elections were initially expected to be held in April or May 2020. In turn, Dr. Jamal Heshmat, the former Undersecretary of the Foreign Relations Committee in Parliament, said that the political files witnessed a catastrophic failure and great deterioration due to the absence of real change, and the continued survival of what he described as the ruling gang exercising repression on citizens. The parliament described the European Parliament’s decision as "politicized and unbalanced". For the latest economic outlook due to the Covid-19 pandemic, please consult the OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report Coronavirus (Covid-19): Living with uncertainty and the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19 for the key economic responses from governments. The latest breaking news, comment and features from The Independent. DRC: beyond consultations, the standoff between Félix Tshisekedi and Joseph Kabila, Egypt refers the issue of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to the UN Security Council, Libya file and water security fears ... economic risks that might reduce money flows to Egypt, Pink swings crossing Mexico and the United States rewarded, U.S. elections: divisions will impact U.S. economy. The President may dissolve the House of Representatives. Egypt’s public prosecutor has cleared five policemen of responsibility in the 2016 murder of Italian student Giulio Regeni and said he will not pursue the case because the perpetrator is unknown. For information on the travel restrictions undertaken by the Egyptian government, please refer to the website of the US embassy in Egypt and to EgyptOnlineVisa.For the international outlook you can consult the latest travel updates available on the IATA website. 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